Article
Businesses and Researchers Facing the Challenges of an Uncertain World
September 2026
Prospective
Article
Businesses and Researchers Facing the Challenges of an Uncertain World
IF Initiative by Carbone 4 and emlyon business school brings different worlds together to transform business strategy
Today’s world is characterized by growing uncertainty and multiple, interconnected crises—social, economic, and environmental. Climate change, the loss of biodiversity, and the unsustainable use of natural resources are plunging us into a future whose contours are becoming increasingly unclear. In this new era of imbalance between terrestrial and social systems—referred to in many fields of economic and social science as the Anthropocene—the impact of human activities has become a major force with consequences for everyone: citizens, as well as national and local public officials. but also economic actors from all sectors and at all levels.
Economic actors—primarily businesses—must adapt to a constantly changing environment while rethinking their strategy. They must anticipate risks and take action on multiple fronts. They must start reducing their greenhouse gas emissions today, along with their material footprint—that is, the raw materials used to meet their production needs and consumer demand—and their impact on biodiversity and other critical resources such as water. At the same time, they must meet the needs of their stakeholders: employees, suppliers, customers, and investors. Traditional Approaches to Strategy — short-sighted and based on the erroneous assumption that the past is a relevant benchmark for predicting the future — are no longer sufficient to ensure the long-term viability of businesses. We must now explore other possibilities to stay on course in the midst of the storm. Foresight thus becomes not only a powerful tool but also a necessary one.
The Anthropocene also opens up a new field of research that spans many academic disciplines. Experts in the physical and life sciences, as well as in economics, sociology, and the fields of business and management, are grappling with the challenges it presents.. They must attempt to outline the biogeophysical and socioeconomic contours of the changes to come and To do so, they need to collaborate across existing disciplinary silos. This involves working not only with researchers from various fields of expertise but also in direct contact with economic and political stakeholders and society at large. Only through this communication and mutual listening across disciplines and fields of activity will it be possible to reconcile theoretical reflections on the actions and strategies to be implemented with the realities and complexities on the ground.
One thing is certain: the Anthropocene affects every sector, every region, and each and every one of us. It would be risky—even fatal—for a company to develop its strategy in isolation and based on a future that is incompatible with our planet’s physical limits. It is therefore by drawing on all areas of expertise that we will be able to collectively address these challenges.
A Word to Decision-Makers: What Are the Obstacles to the Anthropocene Strategy?
It is to address these challenges and facilitate this dialogue that the Carbone 4 - emlyon business school Teaching and Research Chair “Strategy in the Anthropocene"organized the workshop in 2025" Designing Alternative Futures, Strategies, and Systems—Changes in the Anthropocene.
This unique workshop brought together nearly 50 participants from the business and research communities, including about ten doctoral students and early-career researchers, to build bridges between “practitioners”—including executives as well as experts working in political, social, or economic organizations—and researchers.
The central question: How do we develop strategy in the Anthropocene era? The concept: to bring real-world business challenges into the realm of strategic research, while also demonstrating the breadth and diversity of research to business leaders. There is only one guideline: listen to one another and try to understand each other.
Over the course of a day and a half of presentations, panel discussions, and workshops, participants were able to explore three topics:
Throughout the sessions, testimonials from executives demonstrated the importance of placing foresight and collaboration with the research community at the heart of corporate strategic and decision-making processes.
Foresight is a process of reflecting on the future and exploring possible futures. This exploration helps identify blind spots in a “business-as-usual” strategy and implement various tools to respond to changes that a company might not have anticipated.
But to “engage in foresight,” we must first “construct” futures—and construct them in a coherent manner—coherent not only with the possible developments of other companies and markets but also with the biogeophysical reality of our planet.
Therefore:
In the Words of Laure Jaubert—Director of Strategic Planning at Michelin
How would you describe your role as Director of Strategic Planning?
Our mission is to actively expose the company to different futures with three main objectives. The first is to ensure that the various units within the organization take a systemic view of possible futures in order to prepare for nonlinear trajectories. The second is to contribute to innovation by shedding light on various future trends to identify new areas for exploration. Finally, the third is to foster conversations about the future at all levels of the organization.
What dilemmas does Michelin face in turning possible futures into strategic actions?
The dilemmas faced by Michelin are certainly the same as those faced by all industrial companies based in Europe with a global presence:
What can the world of research offer a company like Michelin?
The research community can certainly make contributions to these three dilemmas. It can also help bring all stakeholders within businesses (in the broadest sense) together around a shared understanding of the challenges of tomorrow, through a “neutral,” clear-eyed, informed, and systemic perspective.
In the Words of Claire Meunier—Deputy Head of the Strategic Planning Department at Bouygues Construction
How does Bouygues Construction use foresight to update its strategy in response to the challenges of the Anthropocene?
The Strategic Planning Department was created in 2012 within Bouygues Construction to inform the company’s strategy regarding long-term challenges through a systemic approach. By analyzing megatrends and associated risks, we highlight the interconnections between global phenomena in order to adopt a holistic perspective in our decision-making.
Amid multiple uncertainties, we are committed to breaking down barriers between disciplines, collaborating with industry and local stakeholders, and harnessing collective intelligence to envision and test economic and societal models capable of meeting the challenges of the Anthropocene. That is why we are pursuing open and collaborative forward-looking initiatives, bringing together public and private partners from diverse backgrounds to co-create the future of our cities and regions.
What new challenges related to the Anthropocene have you faced while carrying out your missions?
Faced with accelerating climate change, the collapse of biodiversity, and growing pressure on resources, our regions are confronting major challenges. Massive urbanization, land conversion, and the degradation of natural habitats have made our ecosystems fragile—a clear signal that we need to fundamentally rethink our relationship with the natural world.
It is in this context that we are working on new urban models aimed at regeneration. What if the city became a catalyst for restoring life? Together with public and private partners, we’re conducting research to experiment with new approaches: sustainable economic models, governance that integrates living systems throughout the entire life cycle of real estate and urban projects, and regenerative performance indicators. An exciting challenge… but far from easy, and still largely a work in progress.
What is the practical benefit for a business leader of engaging with researchers?
Engaging with researchers enables executives to base their decisions on scientific facts, robust data, and rigorous methods. At Bouygues Construction’s Strategic Planning Department, we regularly seek this expert insight: it helps us approach our analyses objectively and positions the company to meet the challenges of tomorrow.
These exchanges also pave the way for a convergence of complementary perspectives. Urban planning, sociology, economics, the environment, technology… by weaving these areas of expertise together, we gain a holistic view of the issues at hand, enabling us to develop projects that are truly tailored to the challenges facing our society.
Finally, we are convinced that it is by adopting a cross-functional approach—by breaking down organizational silos, particularly between academics and practitioners—that we will be able to forge new partnerships capable of providing meaningful responses to the complexity of today’s challenges.
Using the results of foresight studies to inform strategy is not common practice and can be complex. In large companies, foresight specialists and strategists are not necessarily the same people, teams, or departments. They often speak a language with its own specific vocabulary and draw on often-differing perspectives. Conversely, in smaller companies, where one person may fill multiple roles, there may not be enough time or flexibility to consider how to implement the results of a foresight exercise. Furthermore, foresight and strategy, as practiced today, do not share the same success metrics.
Therefore:
In the Words of Michaël Haddad—Director of Innovation and Partnerships at Alstom
Who do you work with to implement foresight initiatives at Alstom? How do you share your work with people outside your team?
At Alstom, foresight is a function led by the Innovation Department within the Strategy division; therefore, the “Corporate Strategy” department is our natural point of contact, as is our “Chief Strategy Officer.” To carry out our work effectively, we involve marketing teams across our various geographic regions. On the one hand, they provide us with local insights and challenge a vision that might otherwise be too centralized; on the other hand, they draw inspiration from this work to take a step back and develop a more long-term strategy. These exchanges also take place with the product managers of our platforms. We also work closely with the CSR department as part of the process of developing scenarios for the CSRD.[1].
We share our work in various ways. First, internally, we organize webinars several times a year that are open to all our employees via our “Alstom University” training platform, as well as themed workshops (the future of work, planetary boundaries, the future of mobility, etc.) at the request of a specific department. We also coordinate with the Design team to conduct Future Design exercises for our platforms, with the goal of envisioning train concepts that align with the mobility scenarios identified in our research. Finally, foresight informs our external communications through public affairs and industry organizations in our sector, helping us define our key challenges for the future and develop roadmaps.
How can we overcome the “strategic paralysis” that can arise in the face of uncertainty and risk?
Alstom currently operates in a highly dynamic market, and the company’s strategy focuses on business operations and operational excellence to address short-term challenges. In this context, to drive forward-looking initiatives, we must translate them into concrete deliverables that resonate with frontline staff. We are therefore making a significant effort to “translate” the weak signals from our environment into railway-specific terms—that is, to explain how the future events we project will have a direct impact on our business. This involves, for example, quantifying this future using indicators such as passenger-kilometers, or raising awareness about issues like raw material shortages—which the company can directly incorporate into its projected business plans. It is also the role of innovation to transform uncertainty into risk, and to identify opportunities and threats that R&D can address to devise solutions. This is what motivated us, in collaboration with the Design team, to create a workshop dedicated to developing “concept trains” using our platforms, in order to help them define a longer-term product plan than they were accustomed to. In this way, we are supporting the shift from a reactive approach—responding to requests for proposals—to a more proactive attitude of anticipating future needs.
What research questions might interest you or be useful to you?
Using foresight to update a strategy is therefore no easy task. Not only must we update our worldview—that simplified representation of our environment and our place within it that provides us with the keys to understanding and taking action—but we must also have the courage and the ability to implement changes that go against prevailing trends. All of this must be done in a coherent manner, while involving one’s teams, clients, funders, and constituents.
This raises the question of change—not just within one’s own company, but within its broader environment. Action in the Anthropocene can no longer be understood at the level of one’s organization but must be considered at the level of a collective, in order to bring about systemic transformations. One must be able to understand one’s environment and its limits.
Therefore:
In the Words of Christophe Voisin—Sustainability Director at Renault Trucks
In your opinion, what is the biggest challenge Renault Trucks faces in updating its local strategy to address the global challenges of the Anthropocene?
Renault Trucks’ biggest challenge is to sell a large number of electric trucks quickly in order to decarbonize transportation and limit the sector’s environmental impact—ideally while also increasing transportation productivity (average load factor) and promoting circularity in components, starting with the battery.
It also means defining an ambitious strategy that addresses the global stakes… as opposed to a standard, catch-all (CSR) strategy, in order to rise to the level of the real stakes, the gravity of the situation, and the urgency to act.
How can we link the different levels of decision-making?
Ultimately, decision-making depends on (very) few people and is therefore very strongly linked to the decision-makers’ level of awareness (and knowledge) of these issues.
It is essential not to hold back and, therefore, to persuade and support decision-makers during the strategy development phases. Getting everyone on board during the strategy planning and development phases is the best way to ensure success in persuading the final decision-makers.
What is the practical benefit for a business leader of engaging with the research community?
First, step outside the company and listen to other stakeholders who aren’t subject to the same time constraints (or the same pressure to meet operating margins!). Next, the world of research provides a deeper perspective—looking beyond just a few years—and objectivity regarding the issues at hand, again in terms of urgency, scope, and severity. This can help bolster internal company stakeholders who are trying to bring about change.
The concrete actions needed to address the challenges of the Anthropocene are neither simple nor obvious. They are, however, necessary. The practice of foresight, commitment at all levels of a company and with all its stakeholders, and ongoing dialogue between research and action on the ground will make it possible to develop tools tailored to the challenges facing businesses today—and, above all, tomorrow.
Bringing together stakeholders from the business and academic worlds to collaboratively develop new strategic tools and methods—that is precisely the focus of the work atIF Initiative by Carbone 4. The initiative, launched in 2023, has set itself a challenge that is ambitious to say the least: to collaborate with some twenty pioneering companies and researchers from various disciplines in the social and physical sciences to create new strategic decision-making tools (risk analyses, responses to regulatory requirements, and exploration of multiple futures to rethink business models and foster innovation). A key feature: all of IF Initiative’s analyses are based on rigorous scientific frameworks and physically realistic future scenarios, which explore various socioeconomic trends while taking into account environmental and resource-use issues.
The a research and teaching chair launched by Carbone 4 and emlyon business school titled “Strategy in the Anthropocene"is an embodiment of the dialogue between earth sciences and business strategy". The chair’s activities are based on an observation. On the one hand, companies face numerous practical challenges in updating their strategies. On the other hand, management researchers focus on the—often theoretical—drivers of business transformation. But these two worlds—which face similar issues yet have very different environments, indicators of success, approaches, and timeframes for action—communicate little with one another and do not share a common language.
Through this collaboration, IF Initiative is establishing new platforms for exchange, new educational content, and new formats for disseminating the latest academic and practical advances in Anthropocene strategy. By establishing a common vocabulary, its goal is to build bridges between leaders, practitioners, and researchers on issues of strategy in an era of uncertainty.
Businesses are an integral part of IF Initiative’s work. Its tools are developed based on discussions with—and issues raised by—its member companies. The teams at IF Initiative also work directly with partners to help them explore various scenarios and familiarize themselves with foresight tools so they can apply them in their strategic studies. Dialogue is therefore at the heart of its activities.
1.
The Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive, or CSRD, is a European directive adopted in 2022 that strengthens companies' obligations regarding environmental, social, and governance issues.
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